Everyone Is Losing Dough

By Michael The Libertarian

In the last couple or few weeks, there's been some shift of opinion on the NFL protests. Goodell has tried to convince the whole world that all is well in NFLland. You know … “These guys have a right to protest” (NO ONE is saying they don't have that right. Some are just questioning their chosen method of protest) and “The NFL isn't going to interfere in them exercising those rights” (Of course, the NFL's own policy proscribes what conduct is appropriate during the National Anthem).

Well, in the last few weeks or so, we've had the NFL saying they're not going to change their policy (see my last parenthetical statement). We've had Jerry Jones releasing a statement saying (essentially): “If you want to play on my team, you'll stand for the anthem.”. We've had the N.A.A.C.P. Saying that the anthem is racist (but this was never about the anthem, according to earlier statements). We've had Papa John's pizza saying their sales are down this year and partially attributing it to the viewership being down on NFL games (over the last two seasons).

Now, we have Jerry Jones threatening to sue the NFL if the NFL renews Goodell's contract.

Some have pointed out this might have something to do with the suspension of Ezekiel Elliot. I guess that could be, but at those same NFL meetings I mentioned previously, Jones allegedly told the owners and Goodell he was losing money and he blamed the feckless behavior of the NFL in light of these protests.

So one of the partners of the NFL and a team owner in his own right is saying that the NFL is hurting his bottom line. Not that it matters much, but even if Jones is wrong, the viewership numbers and sales of authorized swag is down, again, this year. That's the reality.

The NFL's losing money and people associated with the NFL are losing money. The Cryboys, Papa John's, DirecTV, and a few others. This storm is starting to swell into a dangerous monsoon and the NFL needs to start taking notice.

It's a crying shame because I really like football. I almost always have. It builds character. It teaches young men and boys that sometimes life requires us to “play through the pain”. It teaches teamwork and strategy skills. I have often said: if I'm in a position to hire someone and they are equal in all other things except college education (one has a degree, the other doesn't), if the high school graduate played football in school and the college graduate didn't, I'm hiring the football player.

There have been (of course) those whose only answer to the specific Papa John's “allegations” is that their pizza is garbage and that's the reason. To that I say: Papa John's is one of the fastest growing pizza chains in U.S. History and they were on an “up-swing” until last year, which is when the NFL protests started and when the NFL started seeing a drop in viewership and revenue. Also, I'm from Noo Yawk City and can attest to the fact there's no such thing as good pizza outside of NYC and its immediate environs.

So, let's forget about Papa John's for a moment.

The NFL acknowledges that viewership and sales of “authentic merchandise” are down. Let's look at those.

Up until two years ago, the NFL was making $10B + per year.

Some advertising agreements (not many, but some) have language about how the price goes up or down for advertising depending upon how many viewers the ad reaches.

Some don't have this and it's just a set amount, based upon past performance and future projections. For years, the NFL was just a “blue chip stock” that kept going up and up and up … Until two years ago, when they saw a rather dramatic change.

For the first time in a loooong time, in 2016, viewership was down an average of 1.4 Million per week, I think.

In 2017 (so far) the numbers are off another 2 Million per week from last year's numbers.

So, the NFL is reaching an average of almost 3.5 Million fewer viewers per week. Even if these are all the same people … well, the population of the U.S. is 320 Million? Ten percent of the country is not paying attention. That's a significant number.

With viewership down, 7 Million fewer eyes are looking at those high-priced advertisements. Three and one half million fewer people being influenced by them. Even if it's not an organized boycott, that has to be affecting sales for quite a few advertisers.

DirecTV, the sole outlet for the NFL Sunday Ticket, pays a premium price for that privilege. Of course, they pass that cost on to subscribers at a cost of $320 per season. They've lost a considerable amount of subscribers to that service (some say 50,000) and the reason given has been the NFL protests.

If those numbers are right, that's another $16M.

The contract has a ten year span and I can't remember when it was last renewed, but if the trend continues, do you think DirecTV will raise their bid when the contract is up? Do you think any other cable/dish outlets will raise theirs? It's a simple matter of economics. It's similar to when Rush Limbaugh called Sandra Fluke a slut and his advertisers decided he was on a downward spiral and deserted the sinking ship. People aren't going to pay for record-high advertising during the Superbowl if 10% fewer people are watching, compared to last year (and those numbers were down from the previous year).

No matter what the arguments as far as reasons, the NFL admits their viewership and merchandising is down. That means – for sure – the NFL is losing money, Jerry Jones is losing money, and a few advertisers (just by the law of large numbers) have to be losing money.

So, Jerry Jones is going to sue if the NFL extends Goodell's contract. Ostensibly, he wants to see the NFL do what he feels is the right thing regarding these protests. I guess that might win them back some of their lost viewers and advertising dollars, but at this point, even if the NFL does change its stance on the protests (partly what Jones is threatening to sue about), I don't know if it will help their cause with me. People/entities having to be forced into doing the right thing are just impotent and sad. I'm a fan of neither.

- Michael